Topics Covered

Review of basic probability theory. Basic reliability concepts. Markovian model of generation unit. Development of load models. Probabilistic simulation of generating systems. Reliability indices. Recursive, segmentation and cummulant method to obtain loss of load probability (LOLP). Modeling of forecast uncertainty. Reliability evaluation of energy limited systems. Different techniques of evaluating reliability, reliability indices of interconnected systems. Composite transmission and generating system reliability.